Another summer, another budget impasse in Harrisburg, and this one has far-reaching implications not only for Gov. Josh Shapiro’s first term in office but also for his long term political ambitions.
In Ceisler Media’s Harrisburg office, we follow the budget process closely every year on behalf of a variety of clients, but this budget season was definitely unique.
This year, we had our eye on a number of issues, including election reforms, food assistance programs and funding for individuals with autism and intellectual disabilities, keeping our clients across the Commonwealth informed about goings-on in Harrisburg, and helping them craft a media and advocacy strategy to ensure that their priorities remained at the center of the conversation.
A new dynamic
Budget standoffs are nothing new in Harrisburg, of course. For eight years Democratic Gov. Tom Wolf battled with Harrisburg Republicans who controlled both chambers of the General Assembly, and his first budget finally passed into law (without his signature) nine months after the deadline.
This year, there is a fresh dynamic, with a new Democratic governor whose style differs significantly from his predecessor, and Democrats in control of the House (by the slimmest of margins) for the first time in more than a decade.
Shapiro, a former legislator himself, was generally considered to be more willing than his predecessor to cut deals with Republicans and do the kind of retail politicking with legislators that Wolf was averse to.
All signs were pointing to a relatively smooth budget process, possibly even a deal before the June 30 deadline. Until this week.
A budget sticking point
Going into the long holiday weekend, the budget appeared to be on the one yard line. Senate Republicans passed a version of the budget that they claim was negotiated in good faith with Governor Shapiro, and then adjourned until September, leaving the House to finish the job after the 4th of July.
Most of the compromises had been made, there was just one sticking point remaining: a $100 million school voucher program.
Shapiro had signaled his openness to vouchers, so long as the funds weren’t taken from public schools, on the campaign trail, and it was one of the main reasons why Senate Republicans were willing to be flexible on some of his other priorities. When they packed up and left town after passing their budget, they clearly thought they had a deal with Shapiro, but that turned out not to be the case.
House Democrats drew a red line on the voucher program, and refused to vote for it. With only a one-vote majority, they couldn’t afford to lose even a single member, but their party discipline held. Shapiro was forced to commit to a line item veto of the voucher program in order to get the House to pass the Senate bill, which they did late on July 5.
Senate Republicans, to put it mildly, were displeased. Kim Ward, leader of the Senate Republicans accused Shapiro of negotiating in bad faith and essentially pulling a bait and switch, tweeting “I miss Gov. [Tom Wolf] because as much as we disagreed on the issues, his word actually meant something.”
What comes next
So the big question is now what? In the short term, there are parliamentary procedure issues that may delay the budget reaching Shapiro’s desk. The bill needs to be formally signed by each chamber after final passage, but that can only happen on an official session day. Only legislative leaders can call members into session.
The Senate is in recess until mid-September, and Senate Republicans are likely in no mood to do Shapiro any favors by rushing back to Harrisburg to send the budget to his desk. There are also multiple code bills that will be required to pass to implement the budget, which will require passage through the Republican-controlled Senate.
In the medium term, how will this affect Shapiro’s ability to work with Senate Republicans and actually govern? In announcing his attention to veto the voucher program, Shapiro released a statement that said, in part, “[The voucher program] is just one of several initiatives important to me that have passed in one chamber but not the other — initiatives like statute of limitations reform, an increase in our minimum wage, common sense gun safety legislation, and the Fairness Act.”
It has been conventional wisdom in Harrisburg in recent months that the deals cut around the budget might lead to other deals on issues like the ones he mentioned, in addition to other critical things like election reforms. Will they be able to work together again? Or is the relationship irrevocably fractured? It could be a long three-and-a-half years in Harrisburg if both sides decide to dig in, so stay tuned.
Drew Murren is a Director in Ceisler Media & Issue Advocacy’s Harrisburg office.
